VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #172 Competition C143 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260815

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-08-13 00:05:02
Scored: 2026-08-17 02:10:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
13.7947%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Neutral
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Weak
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.800
Optimizer
0.800
Portfolio Quality
0.871
Portfolio Risk
0.568
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.795559
Memory Adjustment
0.004000
Expected Alpha
0.799559
Correlation Score
0.221925
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.799559

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-08-13 00:05:02
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG PUMP Decision #1
Sector: Other · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.722
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.744408
Exhaustion Penalty
0.022867
After Exhaustion
0.721541
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.721541
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.825766 0.825766 0.239642245
Trend 0.199454 0.772146 0.772146 0.149387600
Liquidity 0.142410 0.902190 0.902190 0.124626771
Market Quality 0.079750 0.530876 0.530876 0.041067140
Risk Control 0.079750 0.532657 0.532657 0.041204913
Rank 0.059836 0.571429 0.571429 0.033166424
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.813686 0.813686 0.047227311
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.743000 0.743000 0.057499481
Factor Total: 0.733821885
Macro Contribution: 0.010586190
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.744408
Historical Raw Score: 0.744408

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 83%
Trend 77%
Liquidity 90%
Market Quality 53%
Risk Control 53%
Relative Strength 81%
Trend Acceleration 74%
Sector Rotation 50%
Sector Strength 49%
Supply Quality 39%
Mean Reversion Risk 43%
Momentum Exhaustion 53%
LONG UNI Decision #2
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.638
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.637693
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.637693
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.637693
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 97
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.464991 0.464991 0.134943176
Trend 0.199454 0.474302 0.474302 0.091763523
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.138138054
Market Quality 0.079750 0.873549 0.873549 0.067575401
Risk Control 0.079750 0.814603 0.814603 0.063015497
Rank 0.059836 0.739496 0.739496 0.042921235
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.409421 0.409421 0.023763286
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.839750 0.839750 0.064986796
Factor Total: 0.627106969
Macro Contribution: 0.010586190
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.637693
Historical Raw Score: 0.637693

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 46%
Trend 47%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 87%
Risk Control 81%
Relative Strength 41%
Trend Acceleration 84%
Sector Rotation 49%
Sector Strength 52%
Supply Quality 70%
Mean Reversion Risk 22%
Momentum Exhaustion 25%
SHORT BEAT Decision #3
Sector: Other · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: High
Decision Score
0.742
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.742127
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.742127
Final Selection Score
0.742127
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.299181 0.198216 0.801784 0.239878891
Trend (inverted) 0.199454 0.252373 0.747627 0.149117415
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.142410365
Market Quality 0.079750 0.419830 0.419830 0.033481360
Risk Control 0.079750 0.357791 0.357791 0.028533762
Rank 0.059836 0.277311 0.277311 0.016593261
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.059836 0.125450 0.874550 0.052329826
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.079782 0.000000 1.000000 0.079781717
Factor Total: 0.742126598
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.742127
Historical Raw Score: 0.742127

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
Negative Evidence
! High crash risk
! Weak momentum
! Weak trend
Momentum 20%
Trend 25%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 42%
Risk Control 36%
Relative Strength 13%
Trend Acceleration 0%
Sector Rotation 50%
Sector Strength 49%
Supply Quality 33%
Mean Reversion Risk 34%
Momentum Exhaustion 32%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.304 0.304 – 0.304 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.353 0.000 – 0.687 1.0000 3
Depth 0.447 0.107 – 0.983 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.351 0.000 – 0.683 1.0000 3
Extension 0.004 0.000 – 0.011 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.967 0.902 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.678 0.678 – 0.678 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.192 0.192 – 0.192 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.608 0.420 – 0.874 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.328 0.217 – 0.426 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.496 0.198 – 0.826 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.366 0.247 – 0.527 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.529 0.277 – 0.739 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.450 0.125 – 0.814 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.568 0.358 – 0.815 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.494 0.492 – 0.496 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.500 0.488 – 0.522 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.474 0.331 – 0.700 1.0200 3
Trend 0.500 0.252 – 0.772 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.528 0.000 – 0.840 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
No attribution record available for this engine generation.
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.