VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.

Portfolio #171 Competition C142 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED

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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260814

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short

Submitted: 2026-08-12 00:05:02

Scored: 2026-08-17 02:10:01

Final Rank

Rank reflects relative competition performance.

Final Score

7.5336%

Engine Status

LIVE

Payout

No payout recorded

Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime

Neutral

Macro Regime

Neutral

Breadth

Weak

Confidence

High

Expected Alpha

0.806

Optimizer

0.806

Portfolio Quality

0.891

Portfolio Risk

0.638

Balance

1.000

Diversification

1.000

Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory

0.805373

Memory Adjustment

0.000667

Expected Alpha

0.806039

Correlation Score

0.339817

Correlation Penalty

0.000000

Final Optimizer Score

0.806039

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family

Adaptive Decision Intelligence™

Engine Version

v5.6.0

Engine Build

2026.07.25

Engine Mode

Long/Short Expected Alpha

Generated

2026-08-12 00:05:02

Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.

3 picks

LONG CRV Decision #1

Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low

Decision Score

0.734

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)

Raw LONG Score

0.734109

Exhaustion Penalty

0.000000

After Exhaustion

0.734109

Crash Guard Penalty

0.000000

Final Selection Score

0.734109

LONG Candidate Blocked

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 99

Confidence Cap: 85

Final Confidence Index: 85

Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum	0.299181	0.701647	0.701647	0.203622167
Trend	0.199454	0.685050	0.685050	0.132537079
Liquidity	0.142410	1.000000	1.000000	0.138138054
Market Quality	0.079750	0.654502	0.654502	0.050630514
Risk Control	0.079750	0.754309	0.754309	0.058351315
Rank	0.059836	0.327731	0.327731	0.019021900
Relative Strength	0.059836	0.755629	0.755629	0.043857613
Trend Acceleration	0.079782	1.000000	1.000000	0.077388266

Factor Total: 0.723546909

Macro Contribution: 0.010562190

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.734109

Historical Raw Score: 0.734109

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ Strong momentum

✓ High liquidity

✓ Controlled risk

✓ Positive sector tags

Negative Evidence

No negative factors recorded.

Momentum 70%

Trend 69%

Liquidity 100%

Market Quality 65%

Risk Control 75%

Relative Strength 76%

Trend Acceleration 100%

Sector Rotation 52%

Sector Strength 55%

Supply Quality 51%

Mean Reversion Risk 31%

Momentum Exhaustion 40%

LONG PAXG Decision #2

Sector: Rwa · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low

Decision Score

0.641

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)

Raw LONG Score

0.643846

Exhaustion Penalty

0.002665

After Exhaustion

0.641181

Crash Guard Penalty

0.000000

Final Selection Score

0.641181

LONG Candidate Blocked

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 98

Confidence Cap: 85

Final Confidence Index: 85

Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum	0.299181	0.537454	0.537454	0.155972374
Trend	0.199454	0.530293	0.530293	0.102596139
Liquidity	0.142410	1.000000	1.000000	0.138138054
Market Quality	0.079750	0.766565	0.766565	0.059299407
Risk Control	0.079750	0.897522	0.897522	0.069429888
Rank	0.059836	0.705882	0.705882	0.040970238
Relative Strength	0.059836	0.553243	0.553243	0.032110887
Trend Acceleration	0.079782	0.449250	0.449250	0.034766678

Factor Total: 0.633283665

Macro Contribution: 0.010562190

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.643846

Historical Raw Score: 0.643846

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ High liquidity

✓ High market quality

✓ Controlled risk

✓ Positive sector tags

Negative Evidence

No negative factors recorded.

Momentum 54%

Trend 53%

Liquidity 100%

Market Quality 77%

Risk Control 90%

Relative Strength 55%

Trend Acceleration 45%

Sector Rotation 48%

Sector Strength 48%

Supply Quality 100%

Mean Reversion Risk 36%

Momentum Exhaustion 43%

SHORT BEAT Decision #3

Sector: Other · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: High

Decision Score

0.813

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)

Raw SHORT Score

0.813390

Rebound Penalty

0.000000

After Rebound

0.813390

Final Selection Score

0.813390

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 99

Confidence Cap: 85

Final Confidence Index: 85

Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum (inverted)	0.299181	0.000000	1.000000	0.299181440
Trend (inverted)	0.199454	0.094755	0.905245	0.180555002
Liquidity	0.142410	1.000000	1.000000	0.142410365
Market Quality	0.079750	0.409558	0.409558	0.032662170
Risk Control	0.079750	0.262518	0.262518	0.020935759
Rank	0.059836	0.243697	0.243697	0.014581924
Relative Strength (inverted)	0.059836	0.000000	1.000000	0.059836288
Trend Acceleration (inverted)	0.079782	0.207500	0.792500	0.063227011

Factor Total: 0.813389959

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.813390

Historical Raw Score: 0.813390

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ High liquidity

Negative Evidence

! High crash risk

! Crash continuation detected

! Weak momentum

! Weak trend

! Weak risk profile

Momentum 0%

Trend 9%

Liquidity 100%

Market Quality 41%

Risk Control 26%

Relative Strength 0%

Trend Acceleration 21%

Sector Rotation 51%

Sector Strength 51%

Supply Quality 33%

Mean Reversion Risk 28%

Momentum Exhaustion 21%

Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.

Factor	Average	Range	Weight	Records
Breadth	0.373	0.373 – 0.373	1.0000	3
Btc Relative Strength	0.502	0.000 – 0.901	1.0000	3
Depth	0.343	0.106 – 0.650	1.0000	3
Eth Relative Strength	0.491	0.000 – 0.884	1.0000	3
Extension	0.000	0.000 – 0.000	1.0000	3
Liquidity	1.000	1.000 – 1.000	1.0200	3
Macro Btc Dominance	0.676	0.676 – 0.676	1.0000	3
Macro Eth Dominance	0.191	0.191 – 0.191	1.0000	3
Macro Fear Greed	0.000	0.000 – 0.000	1.0000	3
Market Quality	0.610	0.410 – 0.767	0.9996	3
Mean Reversion Risk	0.315	0.277 – 0.359	1.0000	3
Momentum	0.413	0.000 – 0.702	1.0000	3
Momentum Exhaustion	0.344	0.208 – 0.427	1.0000	3
Pump Risk	0.200	0.200 – 0.200	1.0000	3
Rank	0.426	0.244 – 0.706	1.0000	3
Relative Strength	0.436	0.000 – 0.756	1.0000	3
Risk Control	0.638	0.263 – 0.898	0.9996	3
Sector Rotation	0.503	0.483 – 0.520	1.0000	3
Sector Strength	0.513	0.479 – 0.549	1.0000	3
Supply Quality	0.613	0.331 – 1.000	1.0200	3
Trend	0.437	0.095 – 0.685	1.0000	3
Trend Acceleration	0.552	0.208 – 1.000	1.0000	3

Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.

No attribution record available for this engine generation.

Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.