VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #170 Competition C141 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260813

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-08-11 00:05:01
Scored: 2026-08-17 02:10:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
-0.3169%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Neutral
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Weak
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.799
Optimizer
0.799
Portfolio Quality
0.901
Portfolio Risk
0.669
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.814140
Memory Adjustment
-0.015000
Expected Alpha
0.799140
Correlation Score
0.367483
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.799140

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-08-11 00:05:01
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG PUMP Decision #1
Sector: Other · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.822
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.846255
Exhaustion Penalty
0.023807
After Exhaustion
0.822448
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.822448
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.969903 0.969903 0.281471667
Trend 0.199454 0.867582 0.867582 0.167851666
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.138138054
Market Quality 0.079750 0.555312 0.555312 0.042957443
Risk Control 0.079750 0.482783 0.482783 0.037346794
Rank 0.059836 0.571429 0.571429 0.033166424
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.987086 0.987086 0.057291655
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 1.000000 1.000000 0.077388266
Factor Total: 0.835611969
Macro Contribution: 0.010642860
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.846255
Historical Raw Score: 0.846255

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 97%
Trend 87%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 56%
Risk Control 48%
Relative Strength 99%
Trend Acceleration 100%
Sector Rotation 50%
Sector Strength 53%
Supply Quality 39%
Mean Reversion Risk 43%
Momentum Exhaustion 57%
LONG CRV Decision #2
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.735
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.734805
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.734805
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.734805
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.711584 0.711584 0.206505944
Trend 0.199454 0.697313 0.697313 0.134909609
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.138138054
Market Quality 0.079750 0.649306 0.649306 0.050228566
Risk Control 0.079750 0.692404 0.692404 0.053562511
Rank 0.059836 0.310924 0.310924 0.018046402
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.781907 0.781907 0.045382820
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 1.000000 1.000000 0.077388266
Factor Total: 0.724162172
Macro Contribution: 0.010642860
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.734805
Historical Raw Score: 0.734805

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ High liquidity
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 71%
Trend 70%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 65%
Risk Control 69%
Relative Strength 78%
Trend Acceleration 100%
Sector Rotation 50%
Sector Strength 53%
Supply Quality 51%
Mean Reversion Risk 31%
Momentum Exhaustion 40%
SHORT FET Decision #3
Sector: Ai · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.692
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.692364
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.692364
Final Selection Score
0.692364
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 98
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.299181 0.377727 0.622273 0.186172532
Trend (inverted) 0.199454 0.363341 0.636659 0.126984371
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.142410365
Market Quality 0.079750 0.612620 0.612620 0.048856325
Risk Control 0.079750 0.830372 0.830372 0.066222005
Rank 0.059836 0.210084 0.210084 0.012570647
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.059836 0.403557 0.596443 0.035688935
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.079782 0.079250 0.920750 0.073459016
Factor Total: 0.692364196
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.692364
Historical Raw Score: 0.692364

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 38%
Trend 36%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 61%
Risk Control 83%
Relative Strength 40%
Trend Acceleration 8%
Sector Rotation 68%
Sector Strength 71%
Supply Quality 82%
Mean Reversion Risk 34%
Momentum Exhaustion 39%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.356 0.356 – 0.356 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.719 0.401 – 0.911 1.0000 3
Depth 0.427 0.250 – 0.649 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.716 0.398 – 0.908 1.0000 3
Extension 0.013 0.000 – 0.038 1.0000 3
Liquidity 1.000 1.000 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.684 0.684 – 0.684 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.188 0.188 – 0.188 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.606 0.555 – 0.649 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.360 0.314 – 0.429 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.686 0.378 – 0.970 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.457 0.394 – 0.573 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.364 0.210 – 0.571 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.724 0.404 – 0.987 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.669 0.483 – 0.830 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.559 0.497 – 0.682 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.588 0.525 – 0.709 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.574 0.393 – 0.820 1.0200 3
Trend 0.643 0.363 – 0.868 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.693 0.079 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
No attribution record available for this engine generation.
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.