VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #169 Competition C140 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Weekly Top Picks #2026-W35

Strategy: cmc_v4_weekly_long_short
Submitted: 2026-08-10 00:05:03
Scored: 2026-08-31 00:15:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
-5.5852%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Neutral
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Neutral
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.798
Optimizer
0.798
Portfolio Quality
0.920
Portfolio Risk
0.734
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.802040
Memory Adjustment
-0.004333
Expected Alpha
0.797706
Correlation Score
0.433617
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.797706

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-08-10 00:05:02
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG PUMP Decision #1
Sector: Other · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.774
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.787500
Exhaustion Penalty
0.013340
After Exhaustion
0.774160
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.774160
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.181014 0.948869 0.948869 0.166605518
Trend 0.221239 0.891188 0.891188 0.191250522
Liquidity 0.160901 1.000000 1.000000 0.156074014
Market Quality 0.147828 0.552781 0.552781 0.079264926
Risk Control 0.128117 0.443831 0.443831 0.055156624
Rank 0.060338 0.563025 0.563025 0.032952590
Relative Strength 0.060338 0.964971 0.964971 0.056477587
Trend Acceleration 0.040225 0.999250 0.999250 0.038989240
Factor Total: 0.776771022
Macro Contribution: 0.010728720
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.787500
Historical Raw Score: 0.787500

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 95%
Trend 89%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 55%
Risk Control 44%
Relative Strength 96%
Trend Acceleration 100%
Sector Rotation 58%
Sector Strength 58%
Supply Quality 39%
Mean Reversion Risk 41%
Momentum Exhaustion 56%
LONG AAVE Decision #2
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.652
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.651513
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.651513
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.651513
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.181014 0.516406 0.516406 0.090672252
Trend 0.221239 0.528926 0.528926 0.113508456
Liquidity 0.160901 0.858593 0.858593 0.134004056
Market Quality 0.147828 0.831619 0.831619 0.119248344
Risk Control 0.128117 0.921631 0.921631 0.114534710
Rank 0.060338 0.647059 0.647059 0.037870911
Relative Strength 0.060338 0.474400 0.474400 0.027765567
Trend Acceleration 0.040225 0.081500 0.081500 0.003180008
Factor Total: 0.640784304
Macro Contribution: 0.010728720
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.651513
Historical Raw Score: 0.651513

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 52%
Trend 53%
Liquidity 86%
Market Quality 83%
Risk Control 92%
Relative Strength 47%
Trend Acceleration 8%
Sector Rotation 48%
Sector Strength 52%
Supply Quality 96%
Mean Reversion Risk 29%
Momentum Exhaustion 40%
SHORT FET Decision #3
Sector: Ai · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.686
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.686214
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.686214
Final Selection Score
0.686214
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 98
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.181014 0.404544 0.595456 0.107785680
Trend (inverted) 0.221239 0.390265 0.609735 0.134897124
Liquidity 0.160901 1.000000 1.000000 0.160901046
Market Quality 0.147828 0.612620 0.612620 0.090562289
Risk Control 0.128117 0.837117 0.837117 0.107249302
Rank 0.060338 0.210084 0.210084 0.012676026
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.060338 0.435686 0.564314 0.034049517
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.040225 0.053000 0.947000 0.038093323
Factor Total: 0.686214306
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.686214
Historical Raw Score: 0.686214

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 40%
Trend 39%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 61%
Risk Control 84%
Relative Strength 44%
Trend Acceleration 5%
Sector Rotation 82%
Sector Strength 97%
Supply Quality 82%
Mean Reversion Risk 33%
Momentum Exhaustion 41%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.461 0.461 – 0.461 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.568 0.421 – 0.833 1.0000 3
Depth 0.508 0.250 – 0.891 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.577 0.429 – 0.841 1.0000 3
Extension 0.003 0.000 – 0.009 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.953 0.859 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.687 0.687 – 0.687 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.193 0.193 – 0.193 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.666 0.553 – 0.832 0.9800 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.340 0.285 – 0.406 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.623 0.405 – 0.949 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.455 0.398 – 0.555 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.473 0.210 – 0.647 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.625 0.436 – 0.965 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.734 0.444 – 0.922 0.9800 3
Sector Rotation 0.626 0.483 – 0.818 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.691 0.523 – 0.971 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.726 0.394 – 0.964 1.0000 3
Trend 0.603 0.390 – 0.891 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.378 0.053 – 0.999 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
No attribution record available for this engine generation.
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.