VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #168 Competition C139 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260812

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-08-10 00:05:02
Scored: 2026-08-17 02:10:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
1.7800%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Neutral
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Neutral
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.798
Optimizer
0.798
Portfolio Quality
0.913
Portfolio Risk
0.711
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.805340
Memory Adjustment
-0.007667
Expected Alpha
0.797673
Correlation Score
0.320483
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.797673

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-08-10 00:05:02
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG PUMP Decision #1
Sector: Other · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.823
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.839765
Exhaustion Penalty
0.016675
After Exhaustion
0.823090
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.823090
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.948869 0.948869 0.275367474
Trend 0.199454 0.891188 0.891188 0.172418734
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.138138054
Market Quality 0.079750 0.552781 0.552781 0.042761651
Risk Control 0.079750 0.443831 0.443831 0.034333572
Rank 0.059836 0.563025 0.563025 0.032678646
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.964971 0.964971 0.056008074
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.999250 0.999250 0.077330225
Factor Total: 0.829036431
Macro Contribution: 0.010728720
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.839765
Historical Raw Score: 0.839765

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 95%
Trend 89%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 55%
Risk Control 44%
Relative Strength 96%
Trend Acceleration 100%
Sector Rotation 58%
Sector Strength 58%
Supply Quality 39%
Mean Reversion Risk 41%
Momentum Exhaustion 56%
LONG ETH Decision #2
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.533
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.533157
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.533157
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.533157
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 95
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.525851 0.525851 0.152605113
Trend 0.199454 0.520497 0.520497 0.100700900
Liquidity 0.142410 0.186942 0.186942 0.025823804
Market Quality 0.079750 0.794215 0.794215 0.061438336
Risk Control 0.079750 0.955126 0.955126 0.073885978
Rank 0.059836 0.991597 0.991597 0.057553479
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.528707 0.528707 0.030686788
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.255000 0.255000 0.019734008
Factor Total: 0.522428408
Macro Contribution: 0.010728720
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.533157
Historical Raw Score: 0.533157

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Low liquidity
Momentum 53%
Trend 52%
Liquidity 19%
Market Quality 79%
Risk Control 96%
Relative Strength 53%
Trend Acceleration 26%
Sector Rotation 48%
Sector Strength 51%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 33%
Momentum Exhaustion 38%
SHORT BONK Decision #3
Sector: Layer2 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.733
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.732570
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.732570
Final Selection Score
0.732570
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.299181 0.284799 0.715201 0.213974865
Trend (inverted) 0.199454 0.271161 0.728839 0.145370067
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.142410365
Market Quality 0.079750 0.599106 0.599106 0.047778586
Risk Control 0.079750 0.733416 0.733416 0.058489783
Rank 0.059836 0.058824 0.058824 0.003519810
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.059836 0.310714 0.689286 0.041244316
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.079782 0.000000 1.000000 0.079781717
Factor Total: 0.732569509
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.732570
Historical Raw Score: 0.732570

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Weak momentum
! Weak trend
! Risk sector tags
Momentum 28%
Trend 27%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 60%
Risk Control 73%
Relative Strength 31%
Trend Acceleration 0%
Sector Rotation 48%
Sector Strength 51%
Supply Quality 99%
Mean Reversion Risk 28%
Momentum Exhaustion 34%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.461 0.461 – 0.461 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.538 0.288 – 0.833 1.0000 3
Depth 0.601 0.250 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.546 0.296 – 0.841 1.0000 3
Extension 0.003 0.000 – 0.009 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.729 0.187 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.687 0.687 – 0.687 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.193 0.193 – 0.193 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.649 0.553 – 0.794 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.339 0.279 – 0.406 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.587 0.285 – 0.949 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.424 0.342 – 0.555 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.538 0.059 – 0.992 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.601 0.311 – 0.965 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.711 0.444 – 0.955 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.513 0.478 – 0.578 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.533 0.509 – 0.579 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.795 0.394 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.561 0.271 – 0.891 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.418 0.000 – 0.999 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
No attribution record available for this engine generation.
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.