VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #167 Competition C138 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260811

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-08-09 00:05:01
Scored: 2026-08-17 02:10:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
1.1898%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Neutral
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Neutral
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.772
Optimizer
0.772
Portfolio Quality
0.917
Portfolio Risk
0.722
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.774579
Memory Adjustment
-0.002667
Expected Alpha
0.771912
Correlation Score
0.477683
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.771912

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-08-09 00:05:01
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG PUMP Decision #1
Sector: Other · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.674
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.688189
Exhaustion Penalty
0.013843
After Exhaustion
0.674346
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.674346
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.778306 0.778306 0.225869068
Trend 0.199454 0.768185 0.768185 0.148621262
Liquidity 0.142410 0.568482 0.568482 0.078528997
Market Quality 0.079750 0.439852 0.439852 0.034025768
Risk Control 0.079750 0.516160 0.516160 0.039928749
Rank 0.059836 0.546218 0.546218 0.031703148
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.795064 0.795064 0.046146468
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.938750 0.938750 0.072648234
Factor Total: 0.677471695
Macro Contribution: 0.010717500
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.688189
Historical Raw Score: 0.688189

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 78%
Trend 77%
Liquidity 57%
Market Quality 44%
Risk Control 52%
Relative Strength 80%
Trend Acceleration 94%
Sector Rotation 57%
Sector Strength 56%
Supply Quality 39%
Mean Reversion Risk 40%
Momentum Exhaustion 48%
LONG BNB Decision #2
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.545
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.544806
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.544806
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.544806
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 95
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.529451 0.529451 0.153649855
Trend 0.199454 0.523200 0.523200 0.101223852
Liquidity 0.142410 0.133435 0.133435 0.018432451
Market Quality 0.079750 0.775796 0.775796 0.060013492
Risk Control 0.079750 0.908842 0.908842 0.070305573
Rank 0.059836 0.974790 0.974790 0.056577981
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.545636 0.545636 0.031669368
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.545500 0.545500 0.042215299
Factor Total: 0.534087870
Macro Contribution: 0.010717500
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.544805
Historical Raw Score: 0.544806

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Low liquidity
Momentum 53%
Trend 52%
Liquidity 13%
Market Quality 78%
Risk Control 91%
Relative Strength 55%
Trend Acceleration 55%
Sector Rotation 52%
Sector Strength 55%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 30%
Momentum Exhaustion 34%
SHORT BONK Decision #3
Sector: Layer2 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.696
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.695728
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.695728
Final Selection Score
0.695728
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.299181 0.302446 0.697554 0.208695210
Trend (inverted) 0.199454 0.285782 0.714218 0.142453846
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.142410365
Market Quality 0.079750 0.599051 0.599051 0.047774200
Risk Control 0.079750 0.741573 0.741573 0.059140302
Rank 0.059836 0.058824 0.058824 0.003519810
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.059836 0.335907 0.664093 0.039736860
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.079782 0.348250 0.651750 0.051997734
Factor Total: 0.695728327
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.695728
Historical Raw Score: 0.695728

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Weak momentum
! Weak trend
! Risk sector tags
Momentum 30%
Trend 29%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 60%
Risk Control 74%
Relative Strength 34%
Trend Acceleration 35%
Sector Rotation 51%
Sector Strength 53%
Supply Quality 99%
Mean Reversion Risk 24%
Momentum Exhaustion 30%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.577 0.577 – 0.577 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.489 0.320 – 0.635 1.0000 3
Depth 0.601 0.250 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.484 0.315 – 0.630 1.0000 3
Extension 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.567 0.133 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.687 0.687 – 0.687 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.193 0.193 – 0.193 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.605 0.440 – 0.776 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.314 0.243 – 0.396 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.537 0.302 – 0.778 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.371 0.300 – 0.477 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.527 0.059 – 0.975 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.559 0.336 – 0.795 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.722 0.516 – 0.909 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.531 0.506 – 0.573 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.545 0.531 – 0.559 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.795 0.394 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.526 0.286 – 0.768 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.611 0.348 – 0.939 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
No attribution record available for this engine generation.
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.