VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #166 Competition C137 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260810

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-08-08 00:05:01
Scored: 2026-08-17 02:10:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
-1.5511%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Neutral
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Weak
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.779
Optimizer
0.779
Portfolio Quality
0.935
Portfolio Risk
0.784
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.782373
Memory Adjustment
-0.003333
Expected Alpha
0.779040
Correlation Score
0.544417
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.779040

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-08-08 00:05:01
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG ADA Decision #1
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.648
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.652225
Exhaustion Penalty
0.003872
After Exhaustion
0.648352
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.648352
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.617254 0.617254 0.179130812
Trend 0.199454 0.598058 0.598058 0.115706679
Liquidity 0.142410 0.579644 0.579644 0.080070894
Market Quality 0.079750 0.836493 0.836493 0.064708849
Risk Control 0.079750 0.856705 0.856705 0.066272395
Rank 0.059836 0.899160 0.899160 0.052188325
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.659571 0.659571 0.038282292
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.582500 0.582500 0.045078665
Factor Total: 0.641438910
Macro Contribution: 0.010785600
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.652225
Historical Raw Score: 0.652225

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 62%
Trend 60%
Liquidity 58%
Market Quality 84%
Risk Control 86%
Relative Strength 66%
Trend Acceleration 58%
Sector Rotation 31%
Sector Strength 32%
Supply Quality 81%
Mean Reversion Risk 36%
Momentum Exhaustion 38%
LONG UNI Decision #2
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.642
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.642072
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.642072
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.642072
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 98
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.565414 0.565414 0.164086533
Trend 0.199454 0.575087 0.575087 0.111262464
Liquidity 0.142410 0.663745 0.663745 0.091688443
Market Quality 0.079750 0.791761 0.791761 0.061248501
Risk Control 0.079750 0.835770 0.835770 0.064652919
Rank 0.059836 0.747899 0.747899 0.043408955
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.513379 0.513379 0.029797133
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.841750 0.841750 0.065141573
Factor Total: 0.631286521
Macro Contribution: 0.010785600
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.642072
Historical Raw Score: 0.642072

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 57%
Trend 58%
Liquidity 66%
Market Quality 79%
Risk Control 84%
Relative Strength 51%
Trend Acceleration 84%
Sector Rotation 60%
Sector Strength 49%
Supply Quality 70%
Mean Reversion Risk 32%
Momentum Exhaustion 30%
SHORT BONK Decision #3
Sector: Layer2 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.667
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.667468
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.667468
Final Selection Score
0.667468
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.299181 0.252684 0.747316 0.223583077
Trend (inverted) 0.199454 0.232269 0.767731 0.153127244
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.142410365
Market Quality 0.079750 0.601517 0.601517 0.047970863
Risk Control 0.079750 0.658992 0.658992 0.052554483
Rank 0.059836 0.067227 0.067227 0.004022614
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.059836 0.268014 0.731986 0.043799325
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.079782 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000000
Factor Total: 0.667467971
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.667468
Historical Raw Score: 0.667468

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Weak momentum
! Weak trend
! Risk sector tags
Momentum 25%
Trend 23%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 60%
Risk Control 66%
Relative Strength 27%
Trend Acceleration 100%
Sector Rotation 32%
Sector Strength 31%
Supply Quality 99%
Mean Reversion Risk 27%
Momentum Exhaustion 17%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.458 0.316 – 0.706 1.0000 3
Depth 0.845 0.553 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.462 0.320 – 0.710 1.0000 3
Extension 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.748 0.580 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.691 0.691 – 0.691 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.195 0.195 – 0.195 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.743 0.602 – 0.836 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.318 0.273 – 0.363 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.478 0.253 – 0.617 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.284 0.174 – 0.380 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.571 0.067 – 0.899 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.480 0.268 – 0.660 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.784 0.659 – 0.857 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.407 0.306 – 0.595 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.373 0.306 – 0.492 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.834 0.700 – 0.990 1.0200 3
Trend 0.468 0.232 – 0.598 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.808 0.583 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
No attribution record available for this engine generation.
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.