VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #149 Competition C120 Portfolio Engine v5.5.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260727

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-07-25 00:05:01
Scored: 2026-08-17 02:10:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
4.4642%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Neutral
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Weak
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.792
Optimizer
0.792
Portfolio Quality
0.903
Portfolio Risk
0.676
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
Not recorded
Memory Adjustment
Not recorded
Expected Alpha
0.791940
Correlation Score
0.266258
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.791940

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.5.0
Engine Build
2026.07.24
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-07-25 00:05:01
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG AAVE Decision #1
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.662
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.662368
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.662368
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.662368
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.539220 0.539220 0.156484877
Trend 0.199454 0.531434 0.531434 0.102816889
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.138138054
Market Quality 0.079750 0.865991 0.865991 0.066990735
Risk Control 0.079750 0.898019 0.898019 0.069468335
Rank 0.059836 0.647059 0.647059 0.037556080
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.544957 0.544957 0.031629958
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.629250 0.629250 0.048696566
Factor Total: 0.651781494
Macro Contribution: 0.010586190
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.662368
Historical Raw Score: 0.662368

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 54%
Trend 53%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 87%
Risk Control 90%
Relative Strength 54%
Trend Acceleration 63%
Sector Rotation 60%
Sector Strength 49%
Supply Quality 96%
Mean Reversion Risk 31%
Momentum Exhaustion 34%
LONG KAITO Decision #2
Sector: Ai · Pump risk: Medium · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.661
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.711090
Exhaustion Penalty
0.050492
After Exhaustion
0.660598
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.660598
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.931274 0.931274 0.270261299
Trend 0.199454 0.729092 0.729092 0.141057914
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.138138054
Market Quality 0.079750 0.369344 0.369344 0.028571458
Risk Control 0.079750 0.315303 0.315303 0.024390992
Rank 0.059836 0.058824 0.058824 0.003414216
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.873086 0.873086 0.050674959
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.568500 0.568500 0.043995229
Factor Total: 0.700504120
Macro Contribution: 0.010586190
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.711090
Historical Raw Score: 0.711090

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
Negative Evidence
! Weak risk profile
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 93%
Trend 73%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 37%
Risk Control 32%
Relative Strength 87%
Trend Acceleration 57%
Sector Rotation 35%
Sector Strength 36%
Supply Quality 24%
Mean Reversion Risk 52%
Momentum Exhaustion 62%
SHORT STX Decision #3
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.650
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.650114
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.650114
Final Selection Score
0.650114
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.299181 0.308027 0.691973 0.207025478
Trend (inverted) 0.199454 0.288311 0.711689 0.141949426
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.142410365
Market Quality 0.079750 0.574361 0.574361 0.045805177
Risk Control 0.079750 0.815595 0.815595 0.065043542
Rank 0.059836 0.117647 0.117647 0.007039560
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.059836 0.317464 0.682536 0.040840421
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.079782 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000000
Factor Total: 0.650113970
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.650114
Historical Raw Score: 0.650114

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Weak momentum
! Weak trend
Momentum 31%
Trend 29%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 57%
Risk Control 82%
Relative Strength 32%
Trend Acceleration 100%
Sector Rotation 31%
Sector Strength 32%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 34%
Momentum Exhaustion 24%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.507 0.343 – 0.641 1.0000 3
Depth 0.422 0.183 – 0.887 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.499 0.335 – 0.633 1.0000 3
Extension 0.028 0.000 – 0.083 1.0000 3
Liquidity 1.000 1.000 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.683 0.683 – 0.683 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.182 0.182 – 0.182 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.603 0.369 – 0.866 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.389 0.313 – 0.518 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.593 0.308 – 0.931 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.398 0.236 – 0.621 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.300 0.200 – 0.500 1.0000 3
Rank 0.275 0.059 – 0.647 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.579 0.317 – 0.873 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.676 0.315 – 0.898 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.417 0.306 – 0.595 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.392 0.322 – 0.492 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.735 0.241 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.516 0.288 – 0.729 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.733 0.569 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
No attribution record available for this engine generation.
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.