VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.

Portfolio #210 Competition C181 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED

← Previous Report Latest Report Next Report → Browse Research Library Back to VADIE Profile

Research Identity

VDX Weekly Top Picks #2026-W40

Strategy: cmc_v4_weekly_long_short

Submitted: 2026-09-14 00:05:03

Scored: 2026-10-05 00:20:01

Final Rank

Rank reflects relative competition performance.

Final Score

-2.7328%

Engine Status

LIVE

Payout

No payout recorded

Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime

Bull

Macro Regime

Neutral

Breadth

Neutral

Confidence

High

Expected Alpha

0.810

Optimizer

0.810

Portfolio Quality

0.931

Portfolio Risk

0.769

Balance

1.000

Diversification

1.000

Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory

0.809671

Memory Adjustment

0.000000

Expected Alpha

0.809671

Correlation Score

0.360550

Correlation Penalty

0.000000

Final Optimizer Score

0.809671

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family

Adaptive Decision Intelligence™

Engine Version

v5.6.0

Engine Build

2026.07.25

Engine Mode

Long/Short Expected Alpha

Generated

2026-09-14 00:05:02

Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.

3 picks

LONG UNI Decision #1

Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low

Decision Score

0.706

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)

Raw LONG Score

0.705613

Exhaustion Penalty

0.000000

After Exhaustion

0.705613

Crash Guard Penalty

0.000000

Final Selection Score

0.705613

LONG Candidate Blocked

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 98

Confidence Cap: 90

Final Confidence Index: 90

Calibration Samples: 45

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum	0.196989	0.750407	0.750407	0.143387182
Trend	0.232165	0.654787	0.654787	0.147458364
Liquidity	0.156340	0.685989	0.685989	0.104030350
Market Quality	0.143638	0.822384	0.822384	0.114581608
Risk Control	0.114527	0.730864	0.730864	0.081192657
Rank	0.058628	0.823529	0.823529	0.046833118
Relative Strength	0.058628	0.662521	0.662521	0.037676784
Trend Acceleration	0.039085	0.508000	0.508000	0.019259572

Factor Total: 0.694419636

Macro Contribution: 0.011193150

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.705613

Historical Raw Score: 0.705613

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ Strong momentum

✓ High market quality

✓ Controlled risk

✓ Positive sector tags

Negative Evidence

No negative factors recorded.

Momentum 75%

Trend 65%

Liquidity 69%

Market Quality 82%

Risk Control 73%

Relative Strength 66%

Trend Acceleration 51%

Sector Rotation 53%

Sector Strength 42%

Supply Quality 70%

Mean Reversion Risk 31%

Momentum Exhaustion 44%

LONG XTZ Decision #2

Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low

Decision Score

0.697

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)

Raw LONG Score

0.705672

Exhaustion Penalty

0.008471

After Exhaustion

0.697201

Crash Guard Penalty

0.000000

Final Selection Score

0.697201

LONG Candidate Blocked

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 97

Confidence Cap: 90

Final Confidence Index: 90

Calibration Samples: 45

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum	0.196989	0.725854	0.725854	0.138695614
Trend	0.232165	0.717487	0.717487	0.161578436
Liquidity	0.156340	1.000000	1.000000	0.151650173
Market Quality	0.143638	0.599542	0.599542	0.083533345
Risk Control	0.114527	0.835797	0.835797	0.092849804
Rank	0.058628	0.117647	0.117647	0.006690445
Relative Strength	0.058628	0.761600	0.761600	0.043311289
Trend Acceleration	0.039085	0.426500	0.426500	0.016169700

Factor Total: 0.694478806

Macro Contribution: 0.011193150

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.705672

Historical Raw Score: 0.705672

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ Strong momentum

✓ Strong trend

✓ High liquidity

✓ Controlled risk

✓ Positive sector tags

Negative Evidence

No negative factors recorded.

Momentum 73%

Trend 72%

Liquidity 100%

Market Quality 60%

Risk Control 84%

Relative Strength 76%

Trend Acceleration 43%

Sector Rotation 53%

Sector Strength 43%

Supply Quality 98%

Mean Reversion Risk 39%

Momentum Exhaustion 52%

SHORT BONK Decision #3

Sector: Layer2 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low

Decision Score

0.605

Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.


                                            SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)

Raw SHORT Score

0.604818

Rebound Penalty

0.000000

After Rebound

0.604818

Final Selection Score

0.604818

Confidence Calibration

Raw Confidence: 96

Confidence Cap: 90

Final Confidence Index: 90

Calibration Samples: 45

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor	Weight	Input	Effective	Contribution
Momentum (inverted)	0.196989	0.397394	0.602606	0.118706684
Trend (inverted)	0.232165	0.372202	0.627798	0.145753018
Liquidity	0.156340	0.855332	0.855332	0.133722934
Market Quality	0.143638	0.556506	0.556506	0.079935257
Risk Control	0.114527	0.738930	0.738930	0.084627546
Rank	0.058628	0.025210	0.025210	0.001478003
Relative Strength (inverted)	0.058628	0.421586	0.578414	0.033911050
Trend Acceleration (inverted)	0.039085	0.829000	0.171000	0.006683551

Factor Total: 0.604818043

Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.604818

Historical Raw Score: 0.604818

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence

✓ High liquidity

✓ Controlled risk

✓ Positive sector tags

Negative Evidence

! Risk sector tags

Momentum 40%

Trend 37%

Liquidity 86%

Market Quality 56%

Risk Control 74%

Relative Strength 42%

Trend Acceleration 83%

Sector Rotation 96%

Sector Strength 100%

Supply Quality 99%

Mean Reversion Risk 26%

Momentum Exhaustion 27%

Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.

Factor	Average	Range	Weight	Records
Breadth	0.443	0.443 – 0.443	1.0000	3
Btc Relative Strength	0.483	0.305 – 0.777	1.0000	3
Depth	0.630	0.335 – 0.995	1.0000	3
Eth Relative Strength	0.448	0.269 – 0.741	1.0000	3
Extension	0.007	0.000 – 0.022	1.0000	3
Liquidity	0.847	0.686 – 1.000	1.0000	3
Macro Btc Dominance	0.688	0.688 – 0.688	1.0000	3
Macro Eth Dominance	0.254	0.254 – 0.254	1.0000	3
Macro Fear Greed	0.000	0.000 – 0.000	1.0000	3
Market Quality	0.659	0.557 – 0.822	0.9800	3
Mean Reversion Risk	0.321	0.265 – 0.385	1.0000	3
Momentum	0.625	0.397 – 0.750	1.0000	3
Momentum Exhaustion	0.411	0.273 – 0.523	1.0000	3
Pump Risk	0.200	0.200 – 0.200	1.0000	3
Rank	0.322	0.025 – 0.824	1.0000	3
Relative Strength	0.615	0.422 – 0.762	1.0000	3
Risk Control	0.769	0.731 – 0.836	0.9800	3
Sector Rotation	0.673	0.530 – 0.956	1.0000	3
Sector Strength	0.614	0.415 – 1.000	1.0000	3
Supply Quality	0.891	0.699 – 0.990	1.0000	3
Trend	0.581	0.372 – 0.717	1.0000	3
Trend Acceleration	0.588	0.427 – 0.829	1.0000	3

Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.

UNI · LONG LOSS

Primary Cause: Mixed

Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified

Position Return: -6.0547%

Attribution Confidence: 30%

XTZ · LONG WIN

Primary Cause: Winning Setup

Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified

Position Return: +2.9637%

Attribution Confidence: 35%

BONK · SHORT LOSS

Primary Cause: Mixed

Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified

Position Return: -5.1075%

Attribution Confidence: 30%

Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.