VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #203 Competition C174 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260910

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-09-08 00:05:02
Scored: 2026-09-11 00:15:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
-2.0021%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Bull
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Strong
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.833
Optimizer
0.833
Portfolio Quality
0.883
Portfolio Risk
0.611
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.829274
Memory Adjustment
0.004000
Expected Alpha
0.833274
Correlation Score
0.208008
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.833274

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-09-08 00:05:02
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG UNI Decision #1
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.854
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.854422
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.854422
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.854422
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 39

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 0.936571 0.936571 0.291172367
Trend 0.206040 0.808776 0.808776 0.161641243
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.903444 0.903444 0.066847881
Risk Control 0.070178 0.702724 0.702724 0.047836459
Rank 0.057233 0.831933 0.831933 0.046185939
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.839343 0.839343 0.046597315
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 0.687000 0.687000 0.050853037
Factor Total: 0.843263313
Macro Contribution: 0.011158350
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.854422
Historical Raw Score: 0.854422

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 94%
Trend 81%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 90%
Risk Control 70%
Relative Strength 84%
Trend Acceleration 69%
Sector Rotation 71%
Sector Strength 70%
Supply Quality 70%
Mean Reversion Risk 27%
Momentum Exhaustion 50%
LONG ARB Decision #2
Sector: Layer2 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.840
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.846459
Exhaustion Penalty
0.006625
After Exhaustion
0.839834
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.839834
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 39

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 1.000000 1.000000 0.310891932
Trend 0.206040 0.852160 0.852160 0.170311930
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.753776 0.753776 0.055773605
Risk Control 0.070178 0.412818 0.412818 0.028101717
Rank 0.057233 0.529412 0.529412 0.029391057
Relative Strength 0.057233 1.000000 1.000000 0.055516416
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 0.718500 0.718500 0.053184727
Factor Total: 0.835300455
Macro Contribution: 0.011158350
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.846459
Historical Raw Score: 0.846459

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 100%
Trend 85%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 75%
Risk Control 41%
Relative Strength 100%
Trend Acceleration 72%
Sector Rotation 72%
Sector Strength 73%
Supply Quality 67%
Mean Reversion Risk 37%
Momentum Exhaustion 60%
SHORT BONK Decision #3
Sector: Layer2 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.565
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.564621
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.564621
Final Selection Score
0.564621
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 97
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 39

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.320507 0.502491 0.497509 0.159455190
Trend (inverted) 0.206040 0.469819 0.530181 0.109238657
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.136215537
Market Quality 0.076281 0.604816 0.604816 0.046135788
Risk Control 0.070178 0.718237 0.718237 0.050404612
Rank 0.057233 0.067227 0.067227 0.003847631
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.057233 0.551807 0.448193 0.025651618
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.076311 0.558750 0.441250 0.033672328
Factor Total: 0.564621361
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.564621
Historical Raw Score: 0.564621

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Risk sector tags
Momentum 50%
Trend 47%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 60%
Risk Control 72%
Relative Strength 55%
Trend Acceleration 56%
Sector Rotation 72%
Sector Strength 73%
Supply Quality 99%
Mean Reversion Risk 26%
Momentum Exhaustion 37%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.688 0.688 – 0.688 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.814 0.547 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Depth 0.811 0.561 – 0.995 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.812 0.544 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Extension 0.054 0.000 – 0.162 1.0000 3
Liquidity 1.000 1.000 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.693 0.693 – 0.693 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.240 0.240 – 0.240 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.754 0.605 – 0.903 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.300 0.258 – 0.372 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.813 0.502 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.488 0.371 – 0.595 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.476 0.067 – 0.832 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.797 0.552 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.611 0.413 – 0.718 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.720 0.713 – 0.723 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.723 0.704 – 0.733 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.786 0.668 – 0.990 1.0200 3
Trend 0.710 0.470 – 0.852 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.655 0.559 – 0.719 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
No attribution record available for this engine generation.
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.