VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #202 Competition C173 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Weekly Top Picks #2026-W39

Strategy: cmc_v4_weekly_long_short
Submitted: 2026-09-07 00:20:02
Scored: 2026-09-28 00:10:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
6.1428%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Bull
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Strong
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.834
Optimizer
0.834
Portfolio Quality
0.934
Portfolio Risk
0.780
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.834049
Memory Adjustment
0.000000
Expected Alpha
0.834049
Correlation Score
0.392733
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.834049

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-09-07 00:20:02
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG UNI Decision #1
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.889
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.889132
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.889132
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.889132
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 39

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.196989 1.000000 1.000000 0.191079218
Trend 0.232165 0.874831 0.874831 0.197012384
Liquidity 0.156340 1.000000 1.000000 0.151650173
Market Quality 0.143638 0.907958 0.907958 0.126504514
Risk Control 0.114527 0.707217 0.707217 0.078565680
Rank 0.058628 0.848739 0.848739 0.048266781
Relative Strength 0.058628 0.953836 0.953836 0.054243523
Trend Acceleration 0.039085 0.807750 0.807750 0.030623857
Factor Total: 0.877946129
Macro Contribution: 0.011185560
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.889132
Historical Raw Score: 0.889132

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 100%
Trend 87%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 91%
Risk Control 71%
Relative Strength 95%
Trend Acceleration 81%
Sector Rotation 79%
Sector Strength 79%
Supply Quality 70%
Mean Reversion Risk 27%
Momentum Exhaustion 53%
LONG NEAR Decision #2
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.800
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.803127
Exhaustion Penalty
0.002752
After Exhaustion
0.800375
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.800375
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 98
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 39

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.196989 0.832320 0.832320 0.159039054
Trend 0.232165 0.817423 0.817423 0.184084074
Liquidity 0.156340 1.000000 1.000000 0.151650173
Market Quality 0.143638 0.815557 0.815557 0.113630412
Risk Control 0.114527 0.758323 0.758323 0.084243114
Rank 0.058628 0.756303 0.756303 0.043010055
Relative Strength 0.058628 0.904236 0.904236 0.051422830
Trend Acceleration 0.039085 0.128250 0.128250 0.004862284
Factor Total: 0.791941995
Macro Contribution: 0.011185560
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.803128
Historical Raw Score: 0.803127

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 83%
Trend 82%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 82%
Risk Control 76%
Relative Strength 90%
Trend Acceleration 13%
Sector Rotation 76%
Sector Strength 76%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 36%
Momentum Exhaustion 62%
SHORT LTC Decision #3
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.543
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.542744
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.542744
Final Selection Score
0.542744
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 96
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 39

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.196989 0.642597 0.357403 0.070404418
Trend (inverted) 0.232165 0.646498 0.353502 0.082070958
Liquidity 0.156340 0.629026 0.629026 0.098342167
Market Quality 0.143638 0.842855 0.842855 0.121065777
Risk Control 0.114527 0.873550 0.873550 0.100045191
Rank 0.058628 0.823529 0.823529 0.048281565
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.058628 0.640307 0.359693 0.021087953
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.039085 0.963000 0.037000 0.001446149
Factor Total: 0.542744178
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.542744
Historical Raw Score: 0.542744

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 64%
Trend 65%
Liquidity 63%
Market Quality 84%
Risk Control 87%
Relative Strength 64%
Trend Acceleration 96%
Sector Rotation 76%
Sector Strength 76%
Supply Quality 92%
Mean Reversion Risk 21%
Momentum Exhaustion 33%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.814 0.814 – 0.814 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.835 0.642 – 0.969 1.0000 3
Depth 0.812 0.443 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.825 0.632 – 0.959 1.0000 3
Extension 0.012 0.000 – 0.033 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.876 0.629 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.696 0.696 – 0.696 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.239 0.239 – 0.239 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.855 0.816 – 0.908 0.9800 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.280 0.212 – 0.361 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.825 0.643 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.491 0.326 – 0.617 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.810 0.756 – 0.849 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.833 0.640 – 0.954 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.780 0.707 – 0.874 0.9800 3
Sector Rotation 0.774 0.765 – 0.794 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.771 0.761 – 0.789 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.874 0.700 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Trend 0.780 0.646 – 0.875 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.633 0.128 – 0.963 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
UNI · LONG WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +10.0918%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
NEAR · LONG WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +29.3332%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
LTC · SHORT LOSS
Primary Cause: Mixed
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: -20.9965%
Attribution Confidence: 30%
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.