VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #153 Competition C124 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260730

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-07-28 00:05:02
Scored: 2026-08-17 02:10:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
6.5565%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Neutral
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Weak
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.793
Optimizer
0.793
Portfolio Quality
0.930
Portfolio Risk
0.768
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.796302
Memory Adjustment
-0.003333
Expected Alpha
0.792969
Correlation Score
0.290092
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.792969

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-07-28 00:05:02
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG LDO Decision #1
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.623
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.647166
Exhaustion Penalty
0.024252
After Exhaustion
0.622914
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.622914
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.650043 0.650043 0.188646377
Trend 0.199454 0.629462 0.629462 0.121782431
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.138138054
Market Quality 0.079750 0.625934 0.625934 0.048420571
Risk Control 0.079750 0.849095 0.849095 0.065683705
Rank 0.059836 0.218487 0.218487 0.012681248
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.679207 0.679207 0.039421989
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.281000 0.281000 0.021746103
Factor Total: 0.636520477
Macro Contribution: 0.010645950
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.647166
Historical Raw Score: 0.647166

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 65%
Trend 63%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 63%
Risk Control 85%
Relative Strength 68%
Trend Acceleration 28%
Sector Rotation 60%
Sector Strength 49%
Supply Quality 84%
Mean Reversion Risk 43%
Momentum Exhaustion 50%
LONG PAXG Decision #2
Sector: Rwa · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.564
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.586497
Exhaustion Penalty
0.022180
After Exhaustion
0.564317
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.564317
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 97
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.489429 0.489429 0.142035231
Trend 0.199454 0.482239 0.482239 0.093299100
Liquidity 0.142410 0.792249 0.792249 0.109439735
Market Quality 0.079750 0.711839 0.711839 0.055065950
Risk Control 0.079750 0.907009 0.907009 0.070163777
Rank 0.059836 0.697479 0.697479 0.040482518
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.505850 0.505850 0.029360141
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.465250 0.465250 0.036004891
Factor Total: 0.575851342
Macro Contribution: 0.010645950
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.586497
Historical Raw Score: 0.586497

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 49%
Trend 48%
Liquidity 79%
Market Quality 71%
Risk Control 91%
Relative Strength 51%
Trend Acceleration 47%
Sector Rotation 38%
Sector Strength 40%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 42%
Momentum Exhaustion 40%
SHORT DEXE Decision #3
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Extreme
Decision Score
0.733
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.812787
Rebound Penalty
0.080000
After Rebound
0.732787
Final Selection Score
0.732787
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 0

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.299181 0.000000 1.000000 0.299181440
Trend (inverted) 0.199454 0.000000 1.000000 0.199454293
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.142410365
Market Quality 0.079750 0.522209 0.522209 0.041646066
Risk Control 0.079750 0.547794 0.547794 0.043686464
Rank 0.059836 0.050420 0.050420 0.003016946
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.059836 0.000000 1.000000 0.059836288
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.079782 0.704750 0.295250 0.023555552
Factor Total: 0.812787414
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.812787
Historical Raw Score: 0.812787

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Extreme crash risk
! Elevated short rebound risk
! Weak momentum
! Weak trend
Momentum 0%
Trend 0%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 52%
Risk Control 55%
Relative Strength 0%
Trend Acceleration 70%
Sector Rotation 60%
Sector Strength 49%
Supply Quality 87%
Mean Reversion Risk 30%
Momentum Exhaustion 13%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.359 0.000 – 0.545 1.0000 3
Depth 0.277 0.135 – 0.425 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.346 0.000 – 0.525 1.0000 3
Extension 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.931 0.792 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.681 0.681 – 0.681 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.194 0.194 – 0.194 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.620 0.522 – 0.712 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.383 0.295 – 0.431 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.380 0.000 – 0.650 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.343 0.131 – 0.496 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.322 0.050 – 0.697 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.395 0.000 – 0.679 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.768 0.548 – 0.907 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.523 0.380 – 0.595 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.461 0.397 – 0.492 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.901 0.836 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.371 0.000 – 0.629 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.484 0.281 – 0.705 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
No attribution record available for this engine generation.
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.