VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #117 Competition C93 Portfolio Engine v4.7 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Monthly Top Picks #2026-09

Strategy: cmc_v4_monthly_long_short
Submitted: 2026-07-01 00:05:02
Scored: 2026-10-01 00:25:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
60.2153%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Neutral
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Weak
Confidence
Very High
Expected Alpha
0.835
Optimizer
0.818
Portfolio Quality
0.954
Portfolio Risk
0.848
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
Not recorded
Memory Adjustment
Not recorded
Expected Alpha
0.835015
Correlation Score
0.587367
Correlation Penalty
0.016815
Final Optimizer Score
0.818200

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Hedge Fund Engine
Engine Version
v4.7
Engine Build
2026.06.16
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-07-01 00:05:02
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG AAVE Decision #1
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Not recorded
Decision Score
0.736
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
Not recorded
Exhaustion Penalty
Not recorded
After Exhaustion
Not recorded
Crash Guard Penalty
Not recorded
Final Selection Score
0.735994
LONG Candidate Blocked
Not recorded
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: Not recorded
Confidence Cap: Not recorded
Final Confidence Index: 99
Calibration Samples: Not recorded

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Factor reconstruction unavailable: historical inputs are incomplete, incompatible or fail integrity validation. No missing values were inferred.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 52%
Trend 50%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 86%
Risk Control 86%
Relative Strength 55%
Trend Acceleration 61%
Sector Rotation 60%
Sector Strength 49%
Supply Quality 96%
Mean Reversion Risk —
Momentum Exhaustion —
LONG NEAR Decision #2
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Not recorded
Decision Score
0.690
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
Not recorded
Exhaustion Penalty
Not recorded
After Exhaustion
Not recorded
Crash Guard Penalty
Not recorded
Final Selection Score
0.689579
LONG Candidate Blocked
Not recorded
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: Not recorded
Confidence Cap: Not recorded
Final Confidence Index: 98
Calibration Samples: Not recorded

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Factor reconstruction unavailable: historical inputs are incomplete, incompatible or fail integrity validation. No missing values were inferred.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 45%
Trend 49%
Liquidity 96%
Market Quality 80%
Risk Control 84%
Relative Strength 36%
Trend Acceleration 43%
Sector Rotation 31%
Sector Strength 32%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk —
Momentum Exhaustion —
SHORT ADA Decision #3
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Not recorded
Decision Score
0.740
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
Not recorded
Rebound Penalty
Not recorded
After Rebound
Not recorded
Final Selection Score
0.740011
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: Not recorded
Confidence Cap: Not recorded
Final Confidence Index: 98
Calibration Samples: Not recorded

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Factor reconstruction unavailable: historical inputs are incomplete, incompatible or fail integrity validation. No missing values were inferred.

Positive Evidence
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Weak momentum
! Weak trend
Momentum 34%
Trend 33%
Liquidity 57%
Market Quality 82%
Risk Control 84%
Relative Strength 36%
Trend Acceleration 68%
Sector Rotation 31%
Sector Strength 32%
Supply Quality 81%
Mean Reversion Risk —
Momentum Exhaustion —
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.592 0.457 – 0.798 1.0000 3
Depth 0.771 0.430 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.582 0.447 – 0.788 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.845 0.571 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.653 0.653 – 0.653 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.130 0.130 – 0.130 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.827 0.799 – 0.858 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.436 0.335 – 0.520 1.0000 3
Rank 0.742 0.622 – 0.866 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.422 0.357 – 0.552 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.848 0.841 – 0.858 1.0000 3
Sector Rotation 0.402 0.306 – 0.595 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.924 0.809 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Trend 0.441 0.327 – 0.503 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.574 0.432 – 0.684 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
AAVE · LONG WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +28.4710%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
NEAR · LONG WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +176.4573%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
ADA · SHORT LOSS
Primary Cause: Sector Strength
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: -24.2823%
Attribution Confidence: 62%
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.