VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #116 Competition C92 Portfolio Engine v4.7 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260703

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-07-01 00:05:02
Scored: 2026-08-17 02:10:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
-4.6688%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Neutral
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Weak
Confidence
Very High
Expected Alpha
0.829
Optimizer
0.829
Portfolio Quality
0.942
Portfolio Risk
0.807
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
Not recorded
Memory Adjustment
Not recorded
Expected Alpha
0.829040
Correlation Score
0.251683
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.829040

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Hedge Fund Engine
Engine Version
v4.7
Engine Build
2026.06.16
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-07-01 00:05:02
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG AAVE Decision #1
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Not recorded
Decision Score
0.643
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
Not recorded
Exhaustion Penalty
Not recorded
After Exhaustion
Not recorded
Crash Guard Penalty
Not recorded
Final Selection Score
0.642861
LONG Candidate Blocked
Not recorded
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: Not recorded
Confidence Cap: Not recorded
Final Confidence Index: 97
Calibration Samples: Not recorded

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Factor reconstruction unavailable: historical inputs are incomplete, incompatible or fail integrity validation. No missing values were inferred.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 52%
Trend 50%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 86%
Risk Control 86%
Relative Strength 55%
Trend Acceleration 61%
Sector Rotation 60%
Sector Strength 49%
Supply Quality 96%
Mean Reversion Risk —
Momentum Exhaustion —
LONG DEXE Decision #2
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Not recorded
Decision Score
0.588
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
Not recorded
Exhaustion Penalty
Not recorded
After Exhaustion
Not recorded
Crash Guard Penalty
Not recorded
Final Selection Score
0.588416
LONG Candidate Blocked
Not recorded
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: Not recorded
Confidence Cap: Not recorded
Final Confidence Index: 95
Calibration Samples: Not recorded

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Factor reconstruction unavailable: historical inputs are incomplete, incompatible or fail integrity validation. No missing values were inferred.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Low liquidity
Momentum 75%
Trend 72%
Liquidity 9%
Market Quality 49%
Risk Control 81%
Relative Strength 56%
Trend Acceleration 41%
Sector Rotation 60%
Sector Strength 49%
Supply Quality 87%
Mean Reversion Risk —
Momentum Exhaustion —
SHORT PEPE Decision #3
Sector: Meme · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Not recorded
Decision Score
0.714
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
Not recorded
Rebound Penalty
Not recorded
After Rebound
Not recorded
Final Selection Score
0.714249
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: Not recorded
Confidence Cap: Not recorded
Final Confidence Index: 99
Calibration Samples: Not recorded

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Factor reconstruction unavailable: historical inputs are incomplete, incompatible or fail integrity validation. No missing values were inferred.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Weak momentum
! Weak trend
! Risk sector tags
Momentum 33%
Trend 32%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 72%
Risk Control 75%
Relative Strength 34%
Trend Acceleration 42%
Sector Rotation 34%
Sector Strength 35%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk —
Momentum Exhaustion —
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.594 0.413 – 0.798 1.0000 3
Depth 0.483 0.114 – 0.884 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.584 0.403 – 0.788 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.695 0.085 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.653 0.653 – 0.653 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.130 0.130 – 0.130 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.689 0.491 – 0.858 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.533 0.327 – 0.754 1.0000 3
Rank 0.630 0.546 – 0.723 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.482 0.337 – 0.559 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.807 0.749 – 0.858 1.0000 3
Sector Rotation 0.511 0.344 – 0.595 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.944 0.868 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Trend 0.516 0.322 – 0.722 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.478 0.411 – 0.606 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
AAVE · LONG WIN
Primary Cause: Winning Setup
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: +1.6523%
Attribution Confidence: 35%
DEXE · LONG LOSS
Primary Cause: Mixed
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: -1.6669%
Attribution Confidence: 30%
PEPE · SHORT LOSS
Primary Cause: Sector Strength
Secondary Cause: No secondary cause identified
Position Return: -13.9918%
Attribution Confidence: 62%
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.