VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #193 Competition C164 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Weekly Top Picks #2026-W38

Strategy: cmc_v4_weekly_long_short
Submitted: 2026-08-31 00:20:02
Scored: 2026-09-21 00:20:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
24.4929%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Neutral
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Neutral
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.827
Optimizer
0.827
Portfolio Quality
0.926
Portfolio Risk
0.754
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.829999
Memory Adjustment
-0.003333
Expected Alpha
0.826666
Correlation Score
0.362067
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.826666

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-08-31 00:20:02
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG UNI Decision #1
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.768
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.767787
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.767787
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.767787
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 31

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.181014 0.738621 0.738621 0.129689488
Trend 0.221239 0.780655 0.780655 0.167529945
Liquidity 0.160901 1.000000 1.000000 0.156074014
Market Quality 0.147828 0.889807 0.889807 0.127592096
Risk Control 0.128117 0.721675 0.721675 0.089685391
Rank 0.060338 0.789916 0.789916 0.046232010
Relative Strength 0.060338 0.677314 0.677314 0.039641668
Trend Acceleration 0.040225 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000000
Factor Total: 0.756444613
Macro Contribution: 0.011342430
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.767787
Historical Raw Score: 0.767787

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 74%
Trend 78%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 89%
Risk Control 72%
Relative Strength 68%
Trend Acceleration 0%
Sector Rotation 47%
Sector Strength 39%
Supply Quality 70%
Mean Reversion Risk 32%
Momentum Exhaustion 51%
LONG ZEC Decision #2
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.746
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.762313
Exhaustion Penalty
0.016611
After Exhaustion
0.745702
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.745702
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 31

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.181014 0.789563 0.789563 0.138634050
Trend 0.221239 0.716222 0.716222 0.153702509
Liquidity 0.160901 0.936577 0.936577 0.146175332
Market Quality 0.147828 0.816849 0.816849 0.117130429
Risk Control 0.128117 0.791044 0.791044 0.098306150
Rank 0.060338 0.924370 0.924370 0.054101301
Relative Strength 0.060338 0.733343 0.733343 0.042920920
Trend Acceleration 0.040225 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000000
Factor Total: 0.750970692
Macro Contribution: 0.011342430
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.762313
Historical Raw Score: 0.762313

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
Negative Evidence
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 79%
Trend 72%
Liquidity 94%
Market Quality 82%
Risk Control 79%
Relative Strength 73%
Trend Acceleration 0%
Sector Rotation 46%
Sector Strength 38%
Supply Quality 80%
Mean Reversion Risk 42%
Momentum Exhaustion 59%
SHORT BONK Decision #3
Sector: Layer2 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.692
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.692069
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.692069
Final Selection Score
0.692069
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 31

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.181014 0.361533 0.638467 0.115571259
Trend (inverted) 0.221239 0.335298 0.664702 0.147057965
Liquidity 0.160901 1.000000 1.000000 0.160901046
Market Quality 0.147828 0.611541 0.611541 0.090402783
Risk Control 0.128117 0.748506 0.748506 0.095896686
Rank 0.060338 0.092437 0.092437 0.005577454
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.060338 0.396129 0.603871 0.036436303
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.040225 0.000000 1.000000 0.040225261
Factor Total: 0.692068756
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.692069
Historical Raw Score: 0.692069

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Weak trend
! Risk sector tags
Momentum 36%
Trend 34%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 61%
Risk Control 75%
Relative Strength 40%
Trend Acceleration 0%
Sector Rotation 47%
Sector Strength 39%
Supply Quality 99%
Mean Reversion Risk 30%
Momentum Exhaustion 38%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.409 0.409 – 0.409 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.491 0.325 – 0.661 1.0000 3
Depth 0.658 0.425 – 0.989 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.511 0.345 – 0.681 1.0000 3
Extension 0.002 0.000 – 0.007 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.979 0.937 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.710 0.710 – 0.710 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.234 0.234 – 0.234 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.773 0.612 – 0.890 0.9800 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.347 0.305 – 0.419 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.630 0.362 – 0.790 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.494 0.382 – 0.593 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.602 0.092 – 0.924 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.602 0.396 – 0.733 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.754 0.722 – 0.791 0.9800 3
Sector Rotation 0.469 0.463 – 0.474 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.384 0.383 – 0.385 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.831 0.700 – 0.990 1.0000 3
Trend 0.611 0.335 – 0.781 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
No attribution record available for this engine generation.
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.