VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #186 Competition C157 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 COMPLETED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260827

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-08-25 00:05:02
Scored: Not recorded
Final Rank
Not recorded
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
Not recorded
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Bull
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Strong
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.821
Optimizer
0.821
Portfolio Quality
0.912
Portfolio Risk
0.705
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.829286
Memory Adjustment
-0.008333
Expected Alpha
0.820952
Correlation Score
0.464583
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.820952

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-08-25 00:05:02
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG POL Decision #1
Sector: Layer2 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.841
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.840522
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.840522
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.840522
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 27

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 0.863599 0.863599 0.268485961
Trend 0.206040 0.857094 0.857094 0.171298035
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.710171 0.710171 0.052547171
Risk Control 0.070178 0.740458 0.740458 0.050405121
Rank 0.057233 0.546218 0.546218 0.030324066
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.900143 0.900143 0.049972714
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 1.000000 1.000000 0.074021889
Factor Total: 0.829184028
Macro Contribution: 0.011337870
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.840522
Historical Raw Score: 0.840522

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 86%
Trend 86%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 71%
Risk Control 74%
Relative Strength 90%
Trend Acceleration 100%
Sector Rotation 77%
Sector Strength 89%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 33%
Momentum Exhaustion 50%
LONG ZEC Decision #2
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.794
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.834839
Exhaustion Penalty
0.040432
After Exhaustion
0.794407
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.794407
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 98
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 27

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 0.958809 0.958809 0.298085982
Trend 0.206040 0.907061 0.907061 0.181284394
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.829850 0.829850 0.061402493
Risk Control 0.070178 0.558698 0.558698 0.038032192
Rank 0.057233 0.915966 0.915966 0.050851150
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.984679 0.984679 0.054665849
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 0.095250 0.095250 0.007050585
Factor Total: 0.823501716
Macro Contribution: 0.011337870
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.834840
Historical Raw Score: 0.834839

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! High momentum exhaustion
Momentum 96%
Trend 91%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 83%
Risk Control 56%
Relative Strength 98%
Trend Acceleration 10%
Sector Rotation 79%
Sector Strength 93%
Supply Quality 80%
Mean Reversion Risk 48%
Momentum Exhaustion 71%
SHORT FTM Decision #3
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.694
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.693899
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.693899
Final Selection Score
0.693899
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 27

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.320507 0.365596 0.634404 0.203331016
Trend (inverted) 0.206040 0.383471 0.616529 0.127029825
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.136215537
Market Quality 0.076281 0.731195 0.731195 0.055776067
Risk Control 0.070178 0.816927 0.816927 0.057330503
Rank 0.057233 0.495798 0.495798 0.028376215
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.057233 0.317521 0.682479 0.039060607
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.076311 0.387000 0.613000 0.046778781
Factor Total: 0.693898550
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.693899
Historical Raw Score: 0.693899

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 37%
Trend 38%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 73%
Risk Control 82%
Relative Strength 32%
Trend Acceleration 39%
Sector Rotation 81%
Sector Strength 94%
Supply Quality 88%
Mean Reversion Risk 24%
Momentum Exhaustion 32%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.672 0.672 – 0.672 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.671 0.262 – 0.979 1.0000 3
Depth 0.458 0.424 – 0.500 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.579 0.170 – 0.887 1.0000 3
Extension 0.050 0.000 – 0.110 1.0000 3
Liquidity 1.000 1.000 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.707 0.707 – 0.707 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.239 0.239 – 0.239 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.757 0.710 – 0.830 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.352 0.241 – 0.485 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.729 0.366 – 0.959 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.508 0.315 – 0.705 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.653 0.496 – 0.916 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.734 0.318 – 0.985 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.705 0.559 – 0.817 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.791 0.768 – 0.813 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.918 0.885 – 0.940 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.895 0.802 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.716 0.383 – 0.907 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.494 0.095 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
No attribution record available for this engine generation.
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.