VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #183 Competition C154 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 COMPLETED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260825

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-08-23 00:05:02
Scored: Not recorded
Final Rank
Not recorded
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
Not recorded
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Bull
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Neutral
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.815
Optimizer
0.815
Portfolio Quality
0.897
Portfolio Risk
0.657
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.818551
Memory Adjustment
-0.003333
Expected Alpha
0.815218
Correlation Score
0.514200
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.815218

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-08-23 00:05:01
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG POL Decision #1
Sector: Layer2 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.835
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.834734
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.834734
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.834734
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 25

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 0.858560 0.858560 0.266919377
Trend 0.206040 0.852206 0.852206 0.170321123
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.706873 0.706873 0.052303145
Risk Control 0.070178 0.689022 0.689022 0.046903724
Rank 0.057233 0.537815 0.537815 0.029857561
Relative Strength 0.057233 0.919786 0.919786 0.051063223
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 1.000000 1.000000 0.074021889
Factor Total: 0.823519112
Macro Contribution: 0.011215110
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.834734
Historical Raw Score: 0.834734

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 86%
Trend 85%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 71%
Risk Control 69%
Relative Strength 92%
Trend Acceleration 100%
Sector Rotation 73%
Sector Strength 86%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 34%
Momentum Exhaustion 51%
LONG ZEC Decision #2
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.798
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.848033
Exhaustion Penalty
0.050163
After Exhaustion
0.797870
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.797870
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 98
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 25

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.320507 0.992139 0.992139 0.308448010
Trend 0.206040 0.984980 0.984980 0.196857215
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.132129071
Market Quality 0.076281 0.829695 0.829695 0.061391025
Risk Control 0.070178 0.464576 0.464576 0.031625034
Rank 0.057233 0.915966 0.915966 0.050851150
Relative Strength 0.057233 1.000000 1.000000 0.055516416
Trend Acceleration 0.076311 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000000
Factor Total: 0.836817922
Macro Contribution: 0.011215110
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.848033
Historical Raw Score: 0.848033

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! High momentum exhaustion
Momentum 99%
Trend 98%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 83%
Risk Control 46%
Relative Strength 100%
Trend Acceleration 0%
Sector Rotation 76%
Sector Strength 89%
Supply Quality 80%
Mean Reversion Risk 52%
Momentum Exhaustion 74%
SHORT FTM Decision #3
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.694
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.693899
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.693899
Final Selection Score
0.693899
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 25

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.320507 0.365596 0.634404 0.203331016
Trend (inverted) 0.206040 0.383471 0.616529 0.127029825
Liquidity 0.136216 1.000000 1.000000 0.136215537
Market Quality 0.076281 0.731195 0.731195 0.055776067
Risk Control 0.070178 0.816927 0.816927 0.057330503
Rank 0.057233 0.495798 0.495798 0.028376215
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.057233 0.317521 0.682479 0.039060607
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.076311 0.387000 0.613000 0.046778781
Factor Total: 0.693898550
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.693899
Historical Raw Score: 0.693899

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 37%
Trend 38%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 73%
Risk Control 82%
Relative Strength 32%
Trend Acceleration 39%
Sector Rotation 77%
Sector Strength 89%
Supply Quality 88%
Mean Reversion Risk 25%
Momentum Exhaustion 32%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.639 0.639 – 0.639 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.675 0.263 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Depth 0.456 0.423 – 0.500 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.601 0.181 – 0.942 1.0000 3
Extension 0.056 0.000 – 0.125 1.0000 3
Liquidity 1.000 1.000 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.700 0.700 – 0.700 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.236 0.236 – 0.236 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.756 0.707 – 0.830 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.367 0.246 – 0.517 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.739 0.366 – 0.992 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.520 0.315 – 0.737 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.650 0.496 – 0.916 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.746 0.318 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.657 0.465 – 0.817 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.755 0.735 – 0.773 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.880 0.858 – 0.891 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.895 0.802 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.740 0.383 – 0.985 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.462 0.000 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
No attribution record available for this engine generation.
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.