VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #181 Competition C152 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 COMPLETED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260823

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-08-21 00:05:02
Scored: Not recorded
Final Rank
Not recorded
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
Not recorded
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Neutral
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Strong
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.808
Optimizer
0.808
Portfolio Quality
0.874
Portfolio Risk
0.580
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.819530
Memory Adjustment
-0.011667
Expected Alpha
0.807864
Correlation Score
0.270800
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.807864

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-08-21 00:05:01
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG ETH Decision #1
Sector: Layer1 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.793
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.792614
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.792614
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.792614
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 24

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.685833 0.685833 0.199032849
Trend 0.199454 0.685699 0.685699 0.132662641
Liquidity 0.142410 0.992547 0.992547 0.137108511
Market Quality 0.079750 0.995616 0.995616 0.077018176
Risk Control 0.079750 0.899600 0.899600 0.069590636
Rank 0.059836 0.991597 0.991597 0.057553479
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.699957 0.699957 0.040626344
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.875750 0.875750 0.067772774
Factor Total: 0.781365410
Macro Contribution: 0.011249100
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.792615
Historical Raw Score: 0.792614

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 69%
Trend 69%
Liquidity 99%
Market Quality 100%
Risk Control 90%
Relative Strength 70%
Trend Acceleration 88%
Sector Rotation 63%
Sector Strength 67%
Supply Quality 100%
Mean Reversion Risk 20%
Momentum Exhaustion 36%
LONG PUMP Decision #2
Sector: Other · Pump risk: Medium · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.764
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.805712
Exhaustion Penalty
0.041832
After Exhaustion
0.763881
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.763881
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 98
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 24

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 1.000000 1.000000 0.290205996
Trend 0.199454 0.984534 0.984534 0.190478447
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.138138054
Market Quality 0.079750 0.573348 0.573348 0.044352659
Risk Control 0.079750 0.022553 0.022553 0.001744639
Rank 0.059836 0.630252 0.630252 0.036580582
Relative Strength 0.059836 1.000000 1.000000 0.058041199
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.451250 0.451250 0.034921455
Factor Total: 0.794463032
Macro Contribution: 0.011249100
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.805712
Historical Raw Score: 0.805712

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Weak risk profile
! Momentum appears extended
Momentum 100%
Trend 98%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 57%
Risk Control 2%
Relative Strength 100%
Trend Acceleration 45%
Sector Rotation 68%
Sector Strength 68%
Supply Quality 39%
Mean Reversion Risk 49%
Momentum Exhaustion 69%
SHORT FTM Decision #3
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.698
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.698054
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.698054
Final Selection Score
0.698054
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 90
Final Confidence Index: 90
Calibration Samples: 24

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.299181 0.365596 0.634404 0.189801902
Trend (inverted) 0.199454 0.383471 0.616529 0.122969356
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.142410365
Market Quality 0.079750 0.731195 0.731195 0.058312658
Risk Control 0.079750 0.816927 0.816927 0.065149769
Rank 0.059836 0.495798 0.495798 0.029666712
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.059836 0.317521 0.682479 0.040837010
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.079782 0.387000 0.613000 0.048906193
Factor Total: 0.698053964
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.698054
Historical Raw Score: 0.698054

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ High market quality
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 37%
Trend 38%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 73%
Risk Control 82%
Relative Strength 32%
Trend Acceleration 39%
Sector Rotation 67%
Sector Strength 71%
Supply Quality 88%
Mean Reversion Risk 23%
Momentum Exhaustion 32%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.770 0.770 – 0.770 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.553 0.354 – 0.701 1.0000 3
Depth 0.584 0.251 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.448 0.249 – 0.596 1.0000 3
Extension 0.045 0.000 – 0.135 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.998 0.993 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.698 0.698 – 0.698 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.244 0.244 – 0.244 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.767 0.573 – 0.996 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.305 0.199 – 0.489 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.684 0.366 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.457 0.315 – 0.691 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.300 0.200 – 0.500 1.0000 3
Rank 0.706 0.496 – 0.992 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.672 0.318 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.580 0.023 – 0.900 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.662 0.633 – 0.677 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.688 0.672 – 0.714 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.758 0.391 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Trend 0.685 0.383 – 0.985 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.571 0.387 – 0.876 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
No attribution record available for this engine generation.
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.