VADIE™ Research Archive

Historical Decision Report

Official autonomous portfolio evidence retained from the VisionX AI competition record.
Portfolio #176 Competition C147 Portfolio Engine v5.6.0 SETTLED
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Research Identity

VDX Daily Top Picks #20260819

Strategy: cmc_v4_daily_long_short
Submitted: 2026-08-17 00:05:02
Scored: 2026-08-20 00:30:01
Final Rank
#1
Rank reflects relative competition performance.
Final Score
5.1492%
Engine Status
LIVE
Payout
No payout recorded
Portfolio Environment

Decision Context

Market Regime
Neutral
Macro Regime
Neutral
Breadth
Weak
Confidence
High
Expected Alpha
0.774
Optimizer
0.774
Portfolio Quality
0.920
Portfolio Risk
0.734
Balance
1.000
Diversification
1.000
Decision Mathematics

Historical VADIE portfolio optimization. Values are taken from the original AI decision record.

Expected Alpha = clamp(Before Memory + Memory Adjustment, 0, 1)

Alpha Before Memory
0.774330
Memory Adjustment
0.000000
Expected Alpha
0.774330
Correlation Score
0.546200
Correlation Penalty
0.000000
Final Optimizer Score
0.774330

Optimizer Score = clamp(Expected Alpha - Correlation Penalty, 0, 1)

Scores are normalized AI selection metrics, not predictions of financial returns. Risk Control measures risk-management quality; higher values do not necessarily mean higher risk.

Engine Provenance

Generation Record

Engine Family
Adaptive Decision Intelligence™
Engine Version
v5.6.0
Engine Build
2026.07.25
Engine Mode
Long/Short Expected Alpha
Generated
2026-08-17 00:05:02
Historical Portfolio

Autonomous Decisions

Decision evidence exactly as retained when this portfolio was generated.
3 picks
LONG WLD Decision #1
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.660
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.659518
Exhaustion Penalty
0.000000
After Exhaustion
0.659518
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.659518
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 19

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.531091 0.531091 0.154125793
Trend 0.199454 0.537397 0.537397 0.103970555
Liquidity 0.142410 1.000000 1.000000 0.138138054
Market Quality 0.079750 0.663055 0.663055 0.051292151
Risk Control 0.079750 0.718685 0.718685 0.055595539
Rank 0.059836 0.621849 0.621849 0.036092862
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.557807 0.557807 0.032375787
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 1.000000 1.000000 0.077388266
Factor Total: 0.648979006
Macro Contribution: 0.010538610
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.659518
Historical Raw Score: 0.659518

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 53%
Trend 54%
Liquidity 100%
Market Quality 66%
Risk Control 72%
Relative Strength 56%
Trend Acceleration 100%
Sector Rotation 51%
Sector Strength 53%
Supply Quality 36%
Mean Reversion Risk 32%
Momentum Exhaustion 33%
LONG ETHFI Decision #2
Sector: Defi · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.647
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

LONG = clamp(raw - exhaustion - crash, 0, 1)
Raw LONG Score
0.672684
Exhaustion Penalty
0.025291
After Exhaustion
0.647393
Crash Guard Penalty
0.000000
Final Selection Score
0.647393
LONG Candidate Blocked
No
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 99
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 19

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum 0.299181 0.714321 0.714321 0.207300238
Trend 0.199454 0.722347 0.722347 0.139752954
Liquidity 0.142410 0.925310 0.925310 0.127820523
Market Quality 0.079750 0.589517 0.589517 0.045603450
Risk Control 0.079750 0.731533 0.731533 0.056589425
Rank 0.059836 0.386555 0.386555 0.022436116
Relative Strength 0.059836 0.731607 0.731607 0.042463348
Trend Acceleration 0.079782 0.260750 0.260750 0.020178990
Factor Total: 0.662145043
Macro Contribution: 0.010538610
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.672684
Historical Raw Score: 0.672684

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ Strong momentum
✓ Strong trend
✓ High liquidity
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
No negative factors recorded.
Momentum 71%
Trend 72%
Liquidity 93%
Market Quality 59%
Risk Control 73%
Relative Strength 73%
Trend Acceleration 26%
Sector Rotation 51%
Sector Strength 53%
Supply Quality 97%
Mean Reversion Risk 43%
Momentum Exhaustion 55%
SHORT BONK Decision #3
Sector: Layer2 · Pump risk: Low · Crash risk: Low
Decision Score
0.640
Decision Score Mathematics

Historical scoring components retained at the time of this AI decision.

SHORT = clamp(raw - rebound, 0, 1)
Raw SHORT Score
0.640355
Rebound Penalty
0.000000
After Rebound
0.640355
Final Selection Score
0.640355
Confidence Calibration
Raw Confidence: 98
Confidence Cap: 85
Final Confidence Index: 85
Calibration Samples: 19

Historical components are stored at rounded precision. Recalculations may differ by a small rounding amount. Confidence is an internal AI index, not a probability of profit.

Factor Contribution Mathematics

Historical factor weights and score inputs. SHORT reverses momentum, trend, relative strength and trend acceleration.

Factor Weight Input Effective Contribution
Momentum (inverted) 0.299181 0.346637 0.653363 0.195474083
Trend (inverted) 0.199454 0.322899 0.677101 0.135050701
Liquidity 0.142410 0.940273 0.940273 0.133904621
Market Quality 0.079750 0.579649 0.579649 0.046226894
Risk Control 0.079750 0.751331 0.751331 0.059918500
Rank 0.059836 0.042017 0.042017 0.002514141
Relative Strength (inverted) 0.059836 0.398500 0.601500 0.035991527
Trend Acceleration (inverted) 0.079782 0.608000 0.392000 0.031274433
Factor Total: 0.640354902
Reconstructed Raw Score: 0.640355
Historical Raw Score: 0.640355

Verified within 0.000002 rounding tolerance. Bars are relative to the largest contribution. AI scores do not represent financial returns.

Positive Evidence
✓ High liquidity
✓ Controlled risk
✓ Positive sector tags
Negative Evidence
! Weak momentum
! Weak trend
! Risk sector tags
Momentum 35%
Trend 32%
Liquidity 94%
Market Quality 58%
Risk Control 75%
Relative Strength 40%
Trend Acceleration 61%
Sector Rotation 44%
Sector Strength 45%
Supply Quality 99%
Mean Reversion Risk 28%
Momentum Exhaustion 29%
Learning Audit

Factor Intelligence

Portfolio-level audit summary. Each observation represents one stored pick-factor result.
Factor Average Range Weight Records
Breadth 0.306 0.306 – 0.306 1.0000 3
Btc Relative Strength 0.704 0.474 – 0.930 1.0000 3
Depth 0.391 0.238 – 0.554 1.0000 3
Eth Relative Strength 0.690 0.459 – 0.916 1.0000 3
Extension 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Liquidity 0.955 0.925 – 1.000 1.0200 3
Macro Btc Dominance 0.673 0.673 – 0.673 1.0000 3
Macro Eth Dominance 0.194 0.194 – 0.194 1.0000 3
Macro Fear Greed 0.000 0.000 – 0.000 1.0000 3
Market Quality 0.611 0.580 – 0.663 0.9996 3
Mean Reversion Risk 0.345 0.284 – 0.434 1.0000 3
Momentum 0.531 0.347 – 0.714 1.0000 3
Momentum Exhaustion 0.389 0.287 – 0.548 1.0000 3
Pump Risk 0.200 0.200 – 0.200 1.0000 3
Rank 0.350 0.042 – 0.622 1.0000 3
Relative Strength 0.563 0.399 – 0.732 1.0000 3
Risk Control 0.734 0.719 – 0.751 0.9996 3
Sector Rotation 0.484 0.436 – 0.508 1.0000 3
Sector Strength 0.502 0.455 – 0.526 1.0000 3
Supply Quality 0.775 0.360 – 0.990 1.0200 3
Trend 0.528 0.323 – 0.722 1.0000 3
Trend Acceleration 0.623 0.261 – 1.000 1.0000 3
Outcome Intelligence

Failure Attribution

Post-competition attribution retained by the learning engine.
No attribution record available for this engine generation.
Research output only. This report displays historical metadata retained at portfolio generation and official competition outcome data. Missing information is not reconstructed retroactively.